According to the quarterly forecast report published by the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources, Australia remained the world's largest exporter of metallurgical coal in 2025-2026, exporting 147 million tons, with more than 95 percent of production shipped overseas.
Although metallurgical coal prices are forecast to remain broadly stable in real terms until 2031 year, Australian export volumes are expected to remain stable. will increase as production at large mines expands. However, export earnings are projected to decline gradually over the forecast period, despite relatively stable prices.
India offsets weaker demand from China
The report said global metallurgical coal trade will remain broadly stable in 2025, despite a decline in global steel production. Lower imports from China were offset by rising demand from India, supported by higher steel production, while adverse weather conditions limited exports from Australia. Trade volumes followed normal seasonal patterns in the first quarter of 2026 and then declined in April due to weaker demand in China. However, Chinese imports are expected to rebound following the suspension of mines in Shanxi due to a mine accident, which has reduced domestic coal supplies.
The report noted that the Middle East conflict had only a limited direct impact on metallurgical coal supplies, although higher insurance, freight and diesel costs increased trade costs. Global imports of metallurgical coal by sea remained largely between 25-30 million tonnes per month, while converter (converter) production continued to dominate global steel production despite a gradual increase in electric arc furnace (EAF) production from 2020. Longer shipping routes, particularly between the Atlantic Basin and Asia, have become more expensive, increasing the relative competitiveness of Australian suppliers. While weaker global economic growth linked to conflict in the Middle East could weigh on demand, Australia expects global metallurgical coal trade to remain broadly stable barring further disruption.
India and Southeast Asia are forecast to be the main sources of demand growth as production
