According to Xu Xiangchun, director of market information at Mysteel, at the Asian Steel Forum held in Beijing on July 16, China's apparent rebar consumption decreased by 30 percent and apparent wire rod consumption decreased by 20 percent during the period of China's 14th five-year plan.
According to a reassessment of changes in Chinese steel demand during the period of the 14th five-year plan, the demand for steel for building construction was approximately 192.6 million tons in 2025, a decrease of 144.84 million tons or 43 percent compared to 2020.
Nevertheless, the demand for steel from the machine-building, automotive and shipbuilding industries showed an increase of six percent, 41 percent and 90 percent over the period, which offset a significant decrease in demand for rebar and wire rod.
In addition, Mr. Xu noted that demand for finished steel in China decreased by 7.0 percent during the 14th five-year plan, or by 80 million tons, compared to the previous period. Reduction of steel demand by 200 million tons before revision. Changes in crude steel consumption (revised) were -3.0 percent in 2021, -4.2 percent in 2022, 1.5 percent in 2023, -1.0 percent in 2024 and -0.3 percent in 2025.
Regarding the steel demand forecast for the 15th five-year period, the correction in the construction industry may be limited, following the previous large decline in the period of the 14th five-year plan, or may not be as significant as in 2021-2025, as the adjustment in the real estate industry has been over-adjusted. Steel consumption in the real estate sector is likely to decrease by another 30-40 million tons in the period 2026-30.
However, the demand for steel from infrastructure may remain largely stable: for example, the construction of a national water supply network, a new type of electricity grid, a computer network, a new generation communication network, an urban underground pipeline network and a logistics network will play a key role in stimulating demand for steel.
At the same time, the demand for steel from the manufacturing industry may continue to grow, and steel consumption for the export of mechanical and electrical products may reach 20-30 million tons.
At the same time, the annual production of metal structures will amount to about 100 million tons in 2025, and in 2030 it will amount to about 150 million tons.
The average steel demand in China is expected to be
