The Ukrainian economy becomes depressive

The decline in industrial production in December 2012 against November 3.9% actually confirms that Ukraine entered the recession zone in the fourth quarter of 2012, said Alexander Valchishen, head of the analytical unit of the Investment Capital of Ukraine group (ICU).

“It is obvious that soon the State Statistics Service will publish data on the real growth of GDP of Darina in the fourth quarter of 2012 and for the whole 2012, which will give an official confirmation of this,” the expert said.

According to Alexander Valchishen, in the fourth quarter the economy fell by 2-2.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2011 and almost 1% compared to the third quarter of 2012. “In general, for the whole 2012, an increase of less than 0.3% per annum will be recorded,” the expert predicts.

He also notes that the above statistics include the risks of reducing the sovereign credit rating of Ukraine by the S&P, Moody's and Fitch agency and the increase in the cost of borrowing in the Eurobonds market.

“However, this also suggests that the conspiracy of the Ukrainian authorities with such large creditors as the IMF or the Kremlin will also increase. According to the ICU group, the choice will be made in favor of the IMF, ”says Alexander Valchishen.

Recall that in Ukraine, the decline in industrial production in December 2012 compared with November 2012 amounted to 3.9%, in December 2011 - 7.6%, and according to the results of January -December 2012 (against the same period of 2011) - 1.8%. In 2011 (January-December 2011 against January-December 2010), the industrial production of Ukraine increased by 7.6%.