The increase in the cost of the metal is due to concerns about a reduction in supply due to lower production in Indonesia and Chile, while demand in China continues to grow. The International Copper Market Research Agency (ICSG) has adjusted its forecast for 2026, expecting a deficit of 150,000 tons.
It should be noted that the accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia led to a temporary halt in copper production. Full restoration is planned no earlier than 2027. Freeport's sales forecast for 2026 has been lowered by 35%. Chile also recorded a 10% decrease in production in August due to the earthquake at the El Teniente mine, which was the most significant drop since 2023.
From a macroeconomic point of view, the lack of an agreement on financing the US economy and the government shutdown have led to delays in the publication of macroeconomic data and increased uncertainty about the Fed's future monetary policy actions. The US dollar index continued to strengthen. However, the probability of a key rate cut in October remains high, which supports metal prices.
According to Translom, copper quotations on the LME increased by $ 412 per ton compared to the previous Thursday, reaching the level of $ 10,866 per ton. The average weekly copper price increased by $330 per ton compared to last week and amounted to $10,679 per ton.