Steel production in China has stabilized at around 1 billion tons, and although the country remains Vale's largest customer, accounting for 60 percent of its total sales, Pimenta expects demand to decline slightly. This shift reinforces Vale's strategy of diversifying supplies to India and other fast-growing Asian markets.
Sharp increase in iron ore exports to India and Vietnam
Vale expects India to import 10 million tons of its iron ore production in 2025, compared with almost no production just a few years earlier. Despite the fact that India is still far from China's volume, India's 12% annual growth makes it one of the most dynamic steel markets in the world.
In addition to India, Vale plans to export 8 million tons to Vietnam next year, reflecting its growing appetite for high-quality ore to support production expansion.
Major investment wave in the Northern System
Although Vale has not launched a new production facility as part of Novo Carajás's 70 billion Brazilian reais (US$13.22 billion) investment program, which runs until 2030, Vale is developing a project that will add 20 million tons of iron ore production capacity. The project is 80 percent complete and is expected to be operational by the end of 2026.
With its expansion strategy and strong demand prospects in Asia, Vale expects to regain its position as the world's largest iron ore producer this year, surpassing Australian mining company Rio Tinto for the first time since the Brumadinho disaster in 2019.
