The World Steel Manufacturers Association (worldsteel) has published its October short-term forecast, according to which global steel demand will remain virtually unchanged at 1.722 billion tons in 2026, and then increase by 1.7% to 1.752 billion tons in 2027. The latest forecasts are comparable to the April forecast for 0.3 percent growth in 2026 and 2.2 percent in 2026. 2027.
China remains the main factor constraining the global спрос
Worldsteel attributed most of the downward revision to China, where the real estate market continues to decline and infrastructure investments have failed to provide expected support, while production growth was insufficient to offset weakness in construction.
Steel demand in China is projected to decrease by 2 percent to 780.1 million tons in 2026 and by another 1 percent to 772.3 million tons in 2027, compared with April, a decrease of 1.5% and subsequent stabilization.
India leads growth as demand outside strengthens Китая
India remains the fastest growing major steel market, with demand expected to increase by 7.9% to 172.4 million tonnes in 2026 and by 8% to 186.2 million tonnes in 2027. Investments in infrastructure construction, private real estate, manufacturing, and renewable energy sources continue to support consumption.
Global demand, excluding China, is projected to grow by 1.5 percent in 2026 and accelerate to 4 percent in 2026. 2027.
EU economic recovery delayed, U.S. growth продолжается
EU steel consumption is expected to decline by 0.3 percent in 2026, before recovering by 3.1 percent in 2027, as construction improves more slowly than expected and activity in the automotive industry remains weak. Infrastructure, defense and energy investments should contribute to the subsequent recovery.
U.S. demand is projected to grow by 2% to 92.7 million tons in 2026 and 1.5% to 94.1 million tons in 2027, driven by data centers, energy infrastructure, and selected manufacturing sectors, while residential construction remains subdued.
Turkey and Southeast Asia continue расширяться
Steel demand in Turkey is projected to grow by 2.9 percent to 40.4 million tons in 2026 and by 3 percent to 41.6 million tons in 2027. Meanwhile, demand in the five ASEAN markets covered by worldsteel is expected to increase by 5.2% and 3.2%, respectively, with Vietnam experiencing particularly strong growth this year.
The conflict in the Middle East remains the main one риском
Steel demand in the Gulf states is expected to fall by about 11 percent in 2026 due to conflict, which is delaying projects and financing decisions, before recovering by 11.3% in 2027 with the expected normalization of security conditions and supply chains. Continued instability in the region, further power outages, and rising trade tensions remain risks to the broader recovery.
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