The Italian steel market continues to show signs of weakness, despite the price recovery recorded in some segments. According to the market report released by Assofermet Acciai on October 9, sales at carbon steel sheet metal service centers decreased by an average of 15 percent, with declines exceeding 20 percent in some cases. The outlook for the last quarter of 2026 remains uncertain, while market participants express concern about the impact of European trade and environmental policies on the competitiveness of the steel supply chain.
Carbon Flat Rolled Products - September Recovery is Rapidly losing динамику
After a resurgence of activity in early September, characterized by relatively brisk trading and due to increased demand, the carbon flat rolled products market began to show signs of weakness again after the first ten days of the month, which led to disappointing expectations for possible growth in the final part of the year. A turning point has emerged. The first week of October confirmed the negative trend, and according to Assofermet, there are currently no signs of significant improvement during the rest of the month. Concerns also extend throughout the fourth quarter amid persistently weak demand, international conflicts, and difficult economic and trade relations with the United States..
The Association also draws attention to the consequences of the environmental and protectionist policies of the European Union. The measures currently in force have a particularly significant impact on raw materials and basic steel products, while equivalent forms of protection are not applied with the same effectiveness to semi-finished products and, above all, finished products imported into the European Union, the report says, adding: This poses a clear threat to security. There is a risk of loss of competitiveness for the entire European processing and distribution supply chain.
Stainless steel - Production volumes decline amid structurally weak спроса
The segment of service centers for the production of flat rolled stainless steel also showed a negative result in September, when sales volumes were significantly lower than those registered in the same month of 2025. Forecasts for October indicate a further slowdown in activity.
According to Assofermet, the trend in actual demand is of particular concern, as the decline appears to be not only cyclical, but also structural. The deadlines for completing orders by manufacturers remain very short, which indicates a limited volume of orders, despite restrictions on импорт.
The sharp rise in energy prices also has a negative impact on the sector. Although stocks are lower than at the beginning of the year, they remain at an average level and do not indicate any particular supply side pressure.
Inventory and distribution - prices are recovering, but volumes continue снижаться
Regarding the inventory segment, Assofermet describes a situation in which prices and demand "continue to change independently": Manufacturers are striving to consolidate prices are rising, but demand remains insufficient to fully satisfy them.
In the long products segment, production volumes decreased compared to September 2025, while prices increased. It gradually improved due to the cumulative growth recorded during the quarter from July to September.
In the flat-rolled segment, the cost of sales also proved to be more stable than the volume. Hot rolled roll (HRC) prices have strengthened above the levels reached in the summer, and signs of price increases are beginning to show in the fall, although they have not been accompanied by a convincing recovery in demand. Cold Rolled Roll (CRC) prices We are following the trend of improving the quality of HRC with the usual time lag.
The situation is more complicated in the hollow profile segment, where sales volumes and costs are decreasing.
At the same time, in the segment of tubular stainless steel products, production has sharply decreased in both volume and cost, long products show positive dynamics in both directions, and flat products benefit from a return allowances for rates on alloys. recovery at 316 points.
Forecast - Caution in the fourth quarter amid new requirements ЕС
Thus, the fourth quarter of 2026 began with mixed signals. On the one hand, producers are trying to consolidate the autumn price increase; on the other hand, demand remains too weak to maintain a sustainable recovery. рынка.
An additional source of uncertainty is the mandatory requirement for documentation for melting and pouring for imported goods, which entered into force on October 1. According to Assofermet, the new requirement imposes an additional administrative burden on market participants and may contribute to changes in the procurement structure in the medium term.
Against this background, the association emphasizes the need for a cautious approach in anticipation of more concrete signs of recovery in demand and greater clarity regarding the evolution of the market. European trade and regulatory framework.
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