The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine will reach 11 hryvnia?

An analytical review by Capital Economics says that the economically feasible dollar exchange rate in Ukraine should be at the level of 11 hryvnias. Experts substantiate their confidence by the fact that in the third quarter of 2013 the inflow of foreign capital to Ukraine was approximately $ 7 billion less than the current account.

To compensate for the gap between capital inflows and outflows, the hryvnia must lose up to 20 percent of its value. “According to our estimates, the nominal exchange rate of the hryvnia has already decreased by 5 percent, that is, a decrease by another 10-15 percent is required,” says Liza Ermolenko, an employee of Capital Economics.

In the current situation, there is an additional risk of loss of control of the National Bank over the exchange rate and "indiscriminate devaluation of the Ukrainian currency and the fall of the hryvnia exchange rate much lower than projected levels," said Ms. Ermolenko.

Meanwhile, the National Bank of Ukraine is confident that the situation is completely under control and it is too early to talk about the devaluation of the hryvnia. “The situation is not only manageable, but also has the prospect of stabilization. There are no large fluctuations in the exchange rate that would have occurred abroad of non-return, ”said Valery Litvitsky, advisor to the head of the National Bank.

However, the population continues to hunt for cash currency, bringing the exchange rate to 9.1 hryvnia per dollar. Not only dollars and euros disappear from exchangers, but also Russian rubles and British pounds sterling.