Aluminum prices approach six-week highs

Aluminum prices rose on Tuesday, hitting a nearly six-week high on signs of seasonally strong demand.

On the London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month aluminum prices reached $2,270 per metric ton, marking their highest level since February 1.

According to Tom Price, Liberum's head of commodity strategy, there are concerns about demand driven by rising inventory levels in China. However, he suggests that this may be due to a seasonal trend in anticipation of a rise in consumption in the second quarter of this year.

Inventory data shows aluminum inventories rose 85% this year to 184,358 metric tons in warehouses controlled by the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Meanwhile, inventories in LME registered warehouses have increased by 2% since the start of 2024, reaching 577,675 tonnes.

China's record aluminum production in 2023 has curbed potential price increases for the metal, which is mainly used in auto parts and power cables.

The ongoing real estate crisis in China has cast a shadow on demand for industrial metals. Moody's recent downgrade of China's second-largest property developer Vanke to junk further underscores the seriousness of the situation.

Tom Price suggests base metals demand linked to China's troubled real estate sector is likely to decline gradually over the next two to three years rather than experience a sudden collapse.