They analyzed the scrap metal market in China and predict the continuation of revolutionary changes in the metallurgical industry. The main conclusion: the growth of the use of recyclables, which began in the late 2010s, will also remain taking into account the slowdown of the Chinese economy to put pressure on metals.
first of all, it will affect steel, which China is an order of magnitude ahead of the rest of the countries (it accounts for about half of the world production of this metal). In 2009-2019, the authors of the study write, the smelting of steel from scrap grew up with a leading pace-an average of 9% per year, while production from primary raw materials-by 5%. The growth of scrap is easily explained, analysts continue: it turns into a metal that was used during economic boom in China in the 2000s. (They estimate the average life of steel goods at 20-25 years).
10 years ago, steel consumption in China was small, its quality was low, and scrap sorting not developed. Now everything has changed: only in 2019, several new lines have appeared in the Chinese steel industry using scrap in production with a capacity of 16.4 million tons/year (1.6% of the total production of steel in China).
The expansion of the capacity will be accompanied by an increase in the collection of scrap (due to the fault of old buildings and cars) and, accordingly, an increase in metal production from recess. By 2030, the share of such steel will be 34% of the total production, the authors of the study believe. This will cause a drop in demand for iron ore and coal and, accordingly, prices for them, which, according to analysts, can halve half.
