The problem is that factories and factories will not come to life from this. On the contrary, the three largest car factories transferred people to a four -day. This is not because salaries are raised, but because the cars have stopped buying. Also with real estate. The rate is 12%, all that is less, will not have a significant effect! Look at the second schedule-money M2 almost at the inflation level.
The state budget is cracking at the seams. There is not enough money than officials planned. In the fall, they will decide how much to spend in 2026 - and there can be very unpleasant surprises for all of us. Prices for gasoline, taxes, benefits - everything may not change for the better.
The authorities specifically do not allow the ruble to fall below 80 rubles per dollar. The logic is simple: if the ruble weakens, then everything in the stores will rise in price again. But there is a side effect - our raw materials exporters receive less rubles for their dollars, which means that less taxes are paid to the treasury. It turns out a vicious circle.
When the Central Bank reduces the bet, stateboards become less profitable for purchase. And the huge money that people kept on deposits (over 60 trillion) at a high percentage begin to look for new application. Where will they go? In apartments (housing prices can take off) and dollars with the yuan (which again can hit the ruble rate).
there is another problem. Foreign investors take cheap loans at home (at 3-5% per annum) and invest this money in Russian banks at 18%. Cool scheme while the course is stable. But it is worth the ruble to swing - and all this money will quickly run away from the country by arranging a currency chaos.
What will the Central Bank do with all these problems? Nobody knows yet. All serious decisions apparently postponed until the end of the special operation. But by that time, problems can grow to such sizes that they will have to take very painful measures. Plug holes by nationalization of assets - well, such a solution ...
