There is cautious optimism at the end of the holiday season, which for a long time may improve in the coming months. The modest price increase in China's domestic market had a slightly positive impact, but further developments in China should be closely monitored. The expected reduction in interest rates may contribute to a more favorable market environment, but mills continue to operate with low capacity utilization and minimal profits, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of this situation.
In Europe, imports remain high, while demand is subdued. However, production during the summer months may help rebalance the market during the fourth quarter. German domestic prices fell significantly between June and August, but although activity remains slow, there is some expectation that September may bring a modest recovery.
In the US, demand is soft and domestic supply is largely sufficient to meet current needs, resulting in stable or slightly declining prices despite a 50% import duty. Bandwidth usage remains below 80 percent, and additional capacity is expected to be available online, a figure that may decrease. The market is waiting for lower interest rates and potential changes in import duties, so much so that many investors postpone expectations of more favorable conditions. The legal uncertainty is contributing to an already unpredictable market environment, as President Trump's five tariffs are currently being challenged in court.
Overall, the global market for long steel products remains unstable and difficult to predict. While prices are usually within long-term trends, the underlying fundamentals and policy scenarios are volatile. The outlook for the next quarter is unsatisfactory, with weak demand and ongoing uncertainty likely to persist.
