India has made energy security a strategic priority, and this is already changing trade flows. Indian steel mills are turning to cheaper Russian metallurgical coal, adapting mixtures accordingly. Shipments from the USA, Mozambique, Mongolia (via Russia) and possibly Canada are also increasing their market share.
This shift has directly affected Australia. Exports of MET coal to India have been steadily declining since 2021, falling 11 percent in 2024 alone. The trend is compounding a broader structural slowdown following China's unofficial import ban in 2019, from which Australian exporters have not fully recovered.
Energy security and technological shifts are changing demand
IEEFA notes that India has domestic coal reserves and is working to expand production in accordance with its Atmanirbhar (self-sufficiency) policy. After thermal coal production exceeded 1 billion tons in 2024, India is now turning its attention to metallurgical coal to further reduce dependence on imports.
More importantly, technological shifts are taking place. Direct reduction hydrogen iron (DRI) and scrap metal recycling are gaining momentum as economically competitive and safe alternatives. BloombergNEF predicts that green hydrogen will become cost-competitive in India and China in
