Experts.news reports that the price of aluminum rose in the final trading of the week after several days of increased volatility amid risks to supplies from the Middle East, changes in Chinese exports and expectations of a possible easing of US tariffs on the Canadian metal.
1.2% - up to 3,242 dollars per ton. Other market indicators during the day showed a level of about 3.23–3.25 thousand dollars per ton.
Metal has risen in price by about 1.8% over the past month, and aluminum remains almost 24% more expensive than a year ago.
Despite the growth during recent trading, the price has significantly retreated from the high of early June. At that time, three–month aluminum on the LME rose to $3 787.5 per ton, the highest level in about four years. By mid-August, the price had dropped to about $3.27 thousand per ton.
The main reason for the June jump was supply disruptions from the Middle East amid the conflict with Iran. Before the escalation of the situation, the Persian Gulf countries provided about 10% of the world's primary aluminum production. Additional problems arose at enterprises that depended on gas supplies
However, China compensated for a significant part of the deficit. In the first half of the year, Chinese exports of aluminum alloys almost doubled to 238.5 thousand tons, while shipments of semi–finished products increased by 18% to 3.2 million tons. At the same time, China's domestic demand remained relatively weak, while primary aluminum production remained at levels close to historically high levels. Another factor for the market was the trade negotiations between the United States and Canada. According to Reuters, the parties have moved closer to an agreement that could potentially reduce U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum from 50% to 25%. Such a solution can once again increase the attractiveness of Canadian metal supplies to the United States and reduce the volumes coming to Europe.
As a result, the aluminum market is caught between two opposing trends: the recovery and growth of Chinese supplies are limiting prices, while geopolitical risks, production restrictions and trade barriers are keeping them well above last year's levels. According to the center's analysis, in 2024 China produced about 43 million tons of primary aluminum, or about 60% of the world's total. the volume. This was followed by India — about 4.2 million tons, Russia — 3.8 million tons, Canada — 3.3 million tons and the UAE — 2.7 million tons.
Watch the Experts Club's short video on global aluminum production —
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