Global demand for rolled steel continues its broad recovery

The World Steel Association (worldsteel) published its survey for the past period in 2018. Global steel demand will reach 1,616.1 million tonnes in 2018, up 1.8% from 2017. In 2019, global steel demand is projected to grow by 0.7% to 1.626.7 million tonnes.

Steel demand depends on a favorable global economic momentum, but faces risks from growing global trade tensions. The possible negative impact of rising trade tensions and likely interest rate fluctuations in the US and EU could undermine the current momentum.

The upside and downside potential for this outlook is largely balanced. In 2018, there is high confidence in rising investment levels and a rebound in commodity prices, which are creating a successful cycle for steel demand around the world in both developed and developing countries. The slight slowdown in 2019 will be associated with further slowdown in China and weakening investment dynamics due to higher interest rates.

On the other hand, a possible escalation of trade tensions, rising inflationary pressures and tightening of US and EU monetary policy could lead to financial market volatility and cause problems in highly indebted countries.

Steel demand in developed countries is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2018 and decline to 1.1% in 2019, steel demand in developing and developing countries (excluding China) will increase by 4.9% and 4 , 5% in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

The moderate recovery in demand in Russia and Brazil is expected to continue. The recovery in Russia will be supported by credit expansion, easing monetary policy, and increased consumer and business confidence.