According to the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG), the global refined zinc market is expected to face a supply shortfall of 292,000 tonnes this year.
This will be the second straight year of shortages after global production fell short of demand by 193,000 tons in 2021.
For the last two years, the Group's analysis of statistical data marks a major reassessment of the dynamics of the zinc market. Last October, the company forecast a total surplus of 261,000 tons compared to 2021 and 2022.
Such are the dangers of trying to take a snapshot of rapidly changing zinc fundamentals.
The big change over the past six months has been the shutdown of European smelters in the face of historically high electricity prices exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.
Europe accounts for about 15% of the world's zinc processing capacity, which means that it is currently the main factor holding back global production rates.
Such a significant bottleneck in steel production is unusual in the zinc market, which has historically been priced based on mine production rather than refining cycles.
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Metallurgy news
- 30 June 2025
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