By the beginning of July, the cost of rebar products in Russia fell by 20% YoY, to 53.5 thousand rubles/ton, including VAT, returning to the levels of early 2023. This is due to unjustified expectations of demand from the construction industry — the recovery in the MCD sector * has not occurred, despite the season and some recovery in demand in residential housing**. Rebar prices increased by only 5% in January–May. At the same time, in June, the price bounced back down by 2% mom (see chart).
Why are prices falling:
Demand is weaker than in 2023, especially in apartment construction — developers are restrained due to expensive project financing.
The number of mortgages issued for residential housing in January-April 2025 decreased by 4 times yoy, according to Interfax. At the same time, half of them were issued for the construction of houses, and half for their purchase. A year ago, the majority of borrowers opted for construction (67%). With the tightening of PREP and rising prices for building materials, buying a ready-made option has become a more optimal solution for many.
Expectations for export growth are moderate: the export price based on FOB Turkey dropped by 7% by July compared to January 2025, to $ 535/ton, due to product overflows from the US market.
The rebar market is experiencing prolonged stagnation against the background of high cost of credit resources and weak construction activity.
