According to Rusmet, prices for hot—rolled coils in Russia for the week from July 29 to August 3 increased by 3.37%, to 36.38 thousand rubles per ton, cold—rolled products - by 1.93%, to 47.3 thousand rubles, steel billets in the Black Sea ports - by 2.79%, to 35.09 thousand rubles per ton. (FOB), rebar products — by 3.39%, to 36.4 thousand rubles. At the same time, prices for harvesting in the ports of the Black Sea in dollars remain stable — about 434 dollars per ton, and the increase in rubles is associated with the weakening of the national currency.
Low prices in the first half of 2025 had a negative impact on the revenue and profits of metallurgical companies. For example, Severstal recorded an 11% year—on-year drop in revenue to 364.2 billion rubles, while MMK recorded a 25% drop in revenue to 313.5 billion rubles.
Analysts attribute the recent price increase to the revival of the Chinese steel market, where the cost of some brands increased by 6-8% in a month amid expectations of restrictions on overproduction and measures to combat deflation. At the end of July, hot—rolled steel in China rose in price by 3.34% to $ 480 per ton, rebar - by 3.28% to $ 456, and in the ports of the Black Sea the increase was 0.65%.
However, experts emphasize that the upturn is caused by a seasonal increase in demand in construction, a weakening ruble and a reduction in stocks at distributors, and this effect is likely to be short-lived. Prices are rising from very low baseline levels that remained for most of 2024 and the first half of 2025.
In the coming months, maintaining positive dynamics depends on the activity of the construction sector, export demand and lower loan rates. At the same time, metallurgical production in Russia continues to decline, reflecting the difficult market conditions and continuing challenges for the industry.
