Australia predicts that PHCC prices will remain at $190/ton in 2026

The Australian Ministry of Industry, Science and Resources has announced that prices for premium hard coking coal (PHCC) are projected to remain relatively unchanged from the current level of about $190/ton in 2026, before rising slightly.

The price of CFR-based metallurgical coal in China continued to rise during the December quarter, reaching $200/ton in early December. The CFR-based price in China has been driving up prices for Australian premium hard coking coal since July this year. In addition, Chinese safety inspections of coal mines have reduced supply, and demand in India has been high since the monsoon season. Supply and demand are also expected to remain roughly in balance, with stronger Indian imports offset by additional maritime supply.

Metric	Forecast for 2024	Forecast for 2025	Forecast for 2026	Forecast for 2027
Average price of PHCC (US$/mt)	242	187	190	196

Export volumes revised to reflect mine adjustments

Australia's export volumes remained unchanged at 37 million tonnes in the September quarter. The increase in new projects was offset by lower production at some existing mines due to consistency and maintenance. Export volume expectations were revised down from previous forecasts due to adjustments at the mines, while the forecast for global metallurgical coal