Global coal demand has plateaued and is likely to decline slightly by 2030 as competition from renewables, natural gas and nuclear power intensifies, despite near-term fluctuations in key markets, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Global coal demand forecast to 2030
The IEA said that in its latest annual market assessment Coal The report provides global and regional forecasts for coal demand, supply and trade to 2030, and analyzes trends in investment, costs and prices.
The IEA says global demand for coal is expected to increase by 0.5 percent in 2025, reaching a new record of 8.85 billion tons. However, consumption patterns in several major markets differed from recent historical trends.
Divergent regional trends in 2025
The IEA reported that coal demand dynamics in 2025 varied significantly by region. In India, the early and intense monsoon season has led to a decline in annual coal use. In the United States, higher natural gas prices and policies that have slowed the retirement of coal-fired power plants have increased coal consumption, reversing a 15-year downward trend. In the European Union, coal demand fell only slightly after two consecutive years of double-digit declines. Meanwhile, in China, coal consumption remained broadly unchanged from 2024 levels.
The energy sector will contribute to the long-term decline
The IEA stressed that changes in the energy sector, which currently accounts for about two-thirds of global coal consumption, will be the main driver of the expected recession. Given the rapid expansion of renewable energy capacity, the steady growth of nuclear power and a significant wave of liquefied natural gas entering the market, coal-fired power generation is projected to decline from 2026. In contrast, the IEA noted that demand for coal from industrial applications is expected to show greater resilience over the forecast period.
China remains a critical factor for global coal markets
According to the IEA, China, which accounts for more than half of
