Global GDP growth is projected to remain broadly stable at 2.9 percent in 2026, reflecting the impact of recent disruptions in the energy market and increased uncertainty, and then increase to three percent in 2026. The report highlights that the escalation of geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, has led to higher energy prices, which is putting pressure on economic activity. The OECD noted that the recent shock has effectively negated the potential upward revision of global growth, highlighting the fragility of the recovery.
High energy prices and supply chain disruptions occur at a time when inflation remains above target in several major economies, including Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Medium-term inflation expectations have also increased following the spike in energy prices. According to the OECD forecasts, inflation in the G20 countries will reach about four percent in 2026, mainly due to higher energy prices, and then decline to 2.7 percent in 2027.
Divergent growth prospects in different regions
Economic prospects vary depending on the largest economies:
- USA: Annual GDP growth is projected to decline from two percent in 2026 to 1.7 percent in 2027, as strong investments related to artificial intelligence are gradually offset by slower growth in real incomes and consumer spending.
- Euro area: GDP growth is expected to decline to 0.8 percent in 2026 as higher energy prices put pressure on activity, and then increase to 1.2 percent in 2027, boosted by higher defense spending.
- China: Growth is projected to slow by 4.4 percent in 2026 and 4.3 percent in 2027.
- Japan: Growth is expected to be around 0.9 percent in both 2026 and 2027.
The OECD report says that agreements to ease trade tensions and deepen trade relations will increase political certainty and strengthen prospects for sustainable growth. New export restrictions in response to supply disruptions should be avoided, as they may exacerbate shortages.
