According to Scottish energy research and consultancy Wood Mackenzie, the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea will mark a major shift in the global marine iron ore market, positioning it as a key driver of long-term supply growth.
The project is expected to begin exporting around 16 million tonnes in 2026, with volumes expected to increase over time, although the build-up may be uneven due to infrastructure and logistics constraints.
The long-awaited project enters the implementation phase
After more than two decades of delays, Simandou entered the implementation phase following Guinea's political reset in 2021. Rather than simply adding new supplies, the project is expected to displace higher-cost production, bend the global cost curve and increase competition based on quality and cost efficiency.
Simandou will be the single biggest contributor to the growth of offshore iron ore supplies over the next decade, Wood McKenzie said. The project is also expected to accelerate the transition to higher quality raw materials, strengthening demand for premium iron ore.
limited near-term impact on Australian producers
The near-term impact on Australian miners, particularly in the Pilbara region, is expected to remain limited. Their ability to blend lower quality ores with higher quality material continues to provide a competitive advantage, although this advantage may diminish over time as demand increases
