In an interview with the Turkish newspaper Oksijen, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, said that events in world energy markets after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could represent not only a short-term supply shock, but also the beginning of a structural transformation of the energy system.
Comparing the current crisis with the oil shocks of the 1970s, Mr. Birol noted that a process with similar ones could be unfolding economic and social implications for the global economy.
He added that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, energy supplies will struggle to return to normal in the short term as damaged refineries, production facilities and liquefied natural gas terminals will take time to resume operations. “Even if the strait opens tomorrow, it would be wrong to suggest that we have reached the end of the tunnel,” Birol said, indicating that the impact on the market could persist in the medium term.
A sharp reduction in oil and gas supplies is expected
The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz could have more serious consequences, especially in April. Birol noted that oil and natural gas supplies, loaded before the war, temporarily supported the market in March, but now supplies are rapidly declining due to the inability to make new supplies. This is expected to lead to significant losses in global oil and gas supply, increasing upward pressure on prices.
