EU car production is expected to decline by 0.9 percent in 2026, compared with a previously forecast decline of 0.2 percent, and then recover by 3.5 percent in 2027, according to the European Steel Manufacturers Association (EUROFER) forecast for the economy and steel market in the third quarter of 2026-2027.
Trade uncertainty and energy prices are putting pressure on производство
The revised forecast reflects a 9.6% decline in production in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025, with ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, weak consumer demand and slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles continuing to constrain activity.
EUROFER stressed that the automotive supply chain is subject to energy and trade shocks, along with the uncertainty associated with the EU's transition to full electrification by 2035, warns that production volume will remain significantly below the level, pre-pandemic levels, despite the projected recovery in 2027.
The number of registered cars is growing, but the demand for steel is recovering unevenly
In the first half of 2026, the number of passenger car registrations in the EU increased by 5.7% year-on-year, mainly due to market support measures, with hybrid electric vehicles accounting for 37% of registrations and battery electric vehicles for 20.7%.
However, weakness in the automotive industry continues to hold back the recovery in steel-consuming industries, where total steel production is projected to increase by 1.5 percent in 2026 and 2.5 percent in 2027, driven by construction and mechanical engineering.
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