The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) linked the expected decline in steel prices to weakening support from raw materials and urged producers to control output and inventories. In September, steel demand in China fell short of expectations while raw materials remained expensive. In October, coke prices began to fall, followed by a softer trend in iron ore.
Demand pressure remains pronounced globally. In its latest forecast, the World Steel Association put global steel demand in 2026 at 1.722 billion metric tons. It expects Chinese demand to fall by 2%, a more pessimistic estimate than the forecast issued in April.
Late October and November will see weakening fourth-quarter demand coincide with expectations of seasonal stockpiling. CISA warns that companies that rush to raise production and pursue volume could return to a situation of “higher output without higher efficiency.” This would put further pressure on prices and deepen losses. Producers should match output to sales, keep inventories at reasonable levels, and monitor winter stockpiling policies, the pace of coke price cuts and end-user demand. The association also warned against price wars and regional dumping.
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