The conference "Steel and raw materials from the CIS in world markets" ended

Experts note that the modern market situation resembles the first half of 2008, when the products were purchased in anticipation of further prices. Since the beginning of 2010, quotes of prices for a square workpiece on the London metals exchange (LME) increased by more than 50%, from $ 385 to $ 595 per 1 tons. According to GP "Gosvnesinform", the average monthly level of export prices for Ukrainian rental has also increased significantly: the cost of 1 tons of a hot -melted sheet (when delivered to the ports of Ukraine on the ports of FOB) April amounted to $ 660 versus $ 488 in January 2010. Similar indicators for reinforcement - $ 479 and $ 658.

“The main reason for a significant increase in the cost of the finished metal rolling is a sharp increase in prices for metallurgical raw materials (on average by 80-130%), initiated by the“ Big Raw Troika ”,” said Vyacheslav Popov, deputy head of the StateVneshnin form department.

A significant part of the conference participants believes that in the next one or two months, a significant price correction may occur on the market. “The fall in prices can be $ 150-200 per 1 tons. After that, a gradual growth will resume,” suggested a representative of the Ukrainian manufacturer, who wished to remain unnamed.

The main reason for reducing prices is weak demand from the end customers. “There is practically no consumption. Maybe it is in China, in the Middle East, but we are purchased almost half as much as compared to 2008. The reinforcement is the worst of all, since there are no new system projects in the construction market, ”complains the top manager of the regional metal trade company.

Market participants note only some signs of rolled consumption in the period of activation of seasonal demand, which is associated, inter alia, with the need to replenish technological reserves.

“You can predict in different ways to predict the level of price rolling off in the coming months, but with a certain accuracy we can say that it will be. Most likely, closer to the third quarter. Manufacturers will be clamped in a narrow vice of the market, limited by high production costs from below (as a result of excessive growth in raw materials) and a low level of demand from end consumers (which will press the price level from above). At the same time, there is, albeit not so large, the probability of the situation when, in the event of a possible sharp drop in the market, the proposals of some met enterprises will be below the level of production costs (if the raw materials do not die their appetites), ”says Vyacheslav Popov.

Other experts agree with him and suggest that the rollback can begin in June-July and coincide with the beginning of the vacation season, the traditional period of reducing business activity.

Among the participants in this line of conferences:

Arcelormittal, Mechel,