Limited influx of aluminum in Q3 2014 supports price increases - FastMarkets

The quarterly analysis and forecast of the situation on the aluminum market, published by FastMarkets and Sucden Financial, indicate that during the third quarter of this year, the growth of prices for aluminum continues, which is mainly due to the limitation of metal supplies.

According to the report, the downward trend in aluminum prices ended in early February this year, when prices touched the bottom at $ 1,671.25 per tonne. Since then, prices have moved in an upward trend. The trend is expected to continue in Q3 2014. However, in the future, producers are going to sell, most likely, in the range of $ 2,000 per ton.

The effect of the closure of existing aluminum processing facilities is likely to be offset by the emergence of new capacities in the Middle East region. Some local governments in China have also focused on restarting shutdown facilities. China's production will remain in surplus, but Western countries are likely to fall.

The Indonesian export ban, if not lifted, could affect all aluminum products as China's bauxite reserves are expected to be depleted in early 2015. However, this impact will only be felt in 2015, according to FastMarkets.

The report also says that demand for aluminum will remain robust throughout the third quarter. Experts also rule out the risk of aluminum shortages in the medium term. In addition, the price of aluminum is expected to remain stable.

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