Iron ore price drop forecast driven by China's economic reorientation

Maintaining the forecast for iron ore prices at an average of $ 70 per tonne in 2017 and $ 50 tonne for 2018, while the projected price drop depends on China's economic reorientation in heavy industry.

“This will reduce the demand for iron ore,” the firm said Wednesday, adding that, combined with a simultaneous increase in global supply, this will close prices in coming years. Iron ore prices will remain in a long-term downtrend recession during the forecast period to 2021 as iron surplus will persist due to expansion of production from major producers including BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Vale and Fortescue Metals Group.

In addition, the price decline seen this year will slow consolidation among high-value iron ore producers, namely China, leading to a prolonged global iron ore stockpile. “Regardless, we expect consolidation to pick up in the coming quarters as muted earnings continue to push higher-value producers to pursue high-cost asset divestment and downsizing strategies.