Steel demand will fall by 4.5% globally

The World Steel Association (WSA) in its latest short-term forecast (SRO) released on October 14, contrary to the forecast from April 15, when it expected 3% year-on-year gain for China and 5.8% year-on-year growth for the whole world.

“2021 is seeing a stronger-than-expected recovery in steel demand, which has led to a revision of our forecasts across the board except China. With this robust recovery, global steel demand outside of China is expected to return earlier than expected to its pre-pandemic level this year, ”said Al Remeiti, chairman of the World Steel Economics Committee, highlighting fluctuations in steel demand in this year. publications.

In the most recent SRO, the WSA revised its forecast for apparent steel demand growth in countries outside of China upward to 11.5% year-on-year throughout 2021 from 9.3% in April, reaching 870 million tonnes of total global demand for the level of 1.86. billion tons.

Among all countries, advanced economies are expected to see the largest apparent steel demand at 12.2% year-on-year throughout 2021, compared to the WSA's April forecast of 8.2% to 385 million tonnes as they “surpassed ... earlier expectations were higher than in developing countries, reflecting the positive benefits of higher vaccination rates and government support measures, ”the report said.

As for 2022, the WSA does not expect an increase in steel demand in China due to “ recent government action to stimulate the move away from the Real Estate-Dependent Growth Model is likely to continue, "even though" some restocking operations may support the apparent use of steel, "according to the most recent SRO.

By comparison, in 2022, apparent global steel demand will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate of 2.2% y /y, to about 1.9 billion tonnes, while the growth rate in developed countries will also drop significantly to 4 , 3% year on year. 401.7 million tons.

However, "sustained inflation, continued slow progress in vaccinations in developing countries and further slowdown in growth in China all pose risks to this outlook," the WSA warned in its message.