On August 1, US President Donald Trump announced an increase in import duties to 25% against Kazakhstan. Three months ago, it was about 27%. Is this a concession or a reason for manipulation? They claim that we are allegedly violating their trade balance, although the main American imports from Kazakhstan are our raw materials and semi—raw materials. Therefore, it's probably not so much about economics as politics. But this is a separate conversation.
To understand the scale: according to Kazakhstan, exports to the United States in 2024 amounted to about 2 billion, while according to American statistics, imports from Kazakhstan amounted to about 2.4 billion. This discrepancy is generally normal and is a common practice due to minor differences in accounting methods and logistics chains.
But what worries me is our peace of mind. For the third month now, we have been repeating, following our Ministry of Trade, that only 4-5% of our exports (about 100 million) fall under high US duties. However, if you look at the American import statistics from Kazakhstan, you will find about 200 million more goods that are not in our statistics. That is, according to official data from MIT, exports of about 100 million (the same 5%) are subject to increased tariffs, and according to the United States — more than 300 million. Let's look at the largest commodity items that are not in our statistics, but which appear in the American and are subject to the new tariffs.
- Code 7115900560 – "ARTICLES OF PRECIOUS METAL, IN RECTANGULAR SHAPES, 99.5% OR MORE BY WEIGHT OF PRECIOUS METAL" – refers to ingots or blanks of precious metals (purity 99.5%), and not to jewelry. The United States imported 1.2 billion worth of goods under this code in 2024. Kazakhstan is one of the top 5 suppliers with exports of 154.5 million (more than 13% of the total). In our official export statistics for the last three years, such a product does not appear at all (neither to America nor to other countries). I am not an expert in precious metals, but most likely this is due to the fact that Kazakhstani raw materials, issued according to other codes, after minor processing in third countries end up in the United States, but they are still recognized as goods of Kazakhstani origin.
- Code 7801100000 – "REFINED LEAD, UNWRAPPED". According to US statistics, imports of this product from Kazakhstan amount to 15.5 million (in 2023 it was about 90 million). There is no lead export to the USA in our statistics. The total export of lead from the Republic of Kazakhstan is about 197 million tons. The main consumers are Vietnam (141 million), China (33 million) and Turkey (22 million). The difference may be related to re-export through Vietnam: the cargo is declared from there to the USA as Kazakh, and in our reports it is registered as export to Vietnam. Kazzinc LLP is the main producer of lead in Kazakhstan.
- Code 2819100000 – "Chromium trioxide". US statistics show that the import of this product from the Republic of Kazakhstan is 5.1 million (in 2023 it was
