Prices for Russian steel billets continue to decline amid weak demand and rising freight rates. According to BigMint, in the ports of the Black Sea, the cost of semi-finished products in mid-August was 440-445 per ton (FOB), which is 10 less than a week earlier. Rusmet estimates the price at 35.82 thousand rubles per ton, the lowest since the end of 2022.
Analysts note that CIS plants have so far avoided aggressive sales, relying on support from the weakening ruble. In Turkey, Russian billets were quoted at 460-470 CFR per ton, but purchase levels did not exceed 455-460. Sluggish demand for rebar and finished steel limits price dynamics, while buyers remain cautious.
Prices may drop to 429-430 per ton. This is due to a drop in construction activity, which leads to a reduction in imports of rolled products to Turkey and an increase in supply on the regional market.
The situation is aggravated by excess capacity in the global metallurgy industry. According to the OECD, it reaches 602 million tons and continues to expand due to foreign investments by Chinese companies. Despite a 3% reduction in smelting in China in the first half of the year, steel exports from the country increased by 11.4% in January—July, to 67.89 million tons. Oversupply and tariff measures in the US, EU and Asia continue to put pressure on quotes.
In the second half of 2025, the semi-finished products market will remain volatile: high transportation costs, low demand and competition will continue. Turkey remains the main consumer of Russian billets, but stable interest is also observed in the countries of North Africa, the Middle East, and, with favorable logistics, in Southeast Asia.
