The main growth areas are India (plus 33%, up to 10 million tons), Turkey (plus 53%, up to 13.9 million tons), Indonesia (plus 22%, up to 2.1 million tons) and Malaysia (plus 31%, up to 1.1 million tons). Shipments to Oman, Iran, Panama and a number of other countries have also resumed, but have stopped to Myanmar, Thailand, Kyrgyzstan and some EU states.
However, the estimates differ. The Center for Price Indices indicates that the real growth in exports of thermal coal was only 6-7.5%, since PCI metallurgical coals could be included in the statistics. This is especially true in Indonesia and Malaysia, where PCI is supplied.
In the short term, the market supports price growth in Asia. By mid-August, the cost of 5,550 kcal of coal in Far Eastern ports had risen by 5.6%, to 70 per ton. The reasons are limited supplies from Australia and rising domestic prices in China. The heating season may provide additional support, but margins are still minimal: for most companies, supplies are close to cost or unprofitable.
Profit is possible only for exporters with access to Far Eastern logistics — about 8 per ton. Shipments through the southern and northwestern ports bring a loss of 7-12 per ton. In the long term, the situation is complicated by the growth of domestic coal production in China and India, the active development of renewable energy and logistical constraints in Russia.
Experts agree that the current situation is temporary, and the strategic prospects of Russian coal miners remain subdued.
