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Global steel demand will stabilize in 2025 and grow in 2026 – forecast

Мировой спрос на сталь стабилизируется в 2025 году и вырастет в 2026 году – прогноз

Global steel demand in 2025 will remain at the level of the previous year - about 1.748 billion tons, after a decline of 1.6% in 2024. Such data are presented in the short-term forecast of the World Range Outlook (SRO).

In 2026, demand will increase by 1.3%, to 1.772 billion tons, which will help recover in Europe, the East, and develop in the mountains.

According to Worldsteel, in the CIS countries, including Ukraine, steel demand in 2025 will decrease by 5.2% to 56.1 million tons, and in 2026 by 1.7% to 55.2 million tons. annually in 2025-2026. Next year, steel consumption in India will be almost 75 million tons higher than in 2020.

In developing countries (excluding China), demand for steel will grow by 3.4% in 2025 and by 4.7% in 2026, which will also be supported by Egypt.

In Africa, steel consumption is increasing by an average of 5.5% annually, reaching 2025 41 million tons - the maximum over the last decade. The growth is ensured by investments in construction and improved macroeconomic indicators.

The Chairman of the Mechanical Engineering Department commented on the market situation and prospects for the Ukrainian metallurgical sector, as well as the increase in exports of metal structures to the EU. industrial and infrastructure facilities. 1.3% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. This reflects the impact of investment in infrastructure and defense against a backdrop of inflation and improving incomes. In the US, steel consumption is estimated to grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, according to Worldsteel. The main drivers of growth will be government spending on infrastructure, a revival of housing construction and private investment.

In China, steel demand will continue to decline - about 2% in 2025, due to a prolonged downturn in the real estate market. The rate of decline will slow to 1% in 2026 as the construction sector is forecast to slow. An economist from the Association of Spanish Manufacturers (UNESID) and head of the economic committee of Worldsteel assesses the market prospects with “cautious optimism”:

Despite trade contradictions and uncertainty, we believe that global demand for steel will be reached in 2025. The expert

Added that this will contribute to the stability of the global economy, increased investment in infrastructure and crisis mitigation. financial conditions. At the same time, high costs, trade barriers and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on the sector.

Worldsteel's forecast highlights that weaker demand in China will be offset by strong growth in India and emerging markets, where a new global steel hub is emerging. Duty-free imports and increased duties of up to 50% could change the balance between EU producers and exporters from Asia and Eastern Europe.

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