- Reduced profitability: EBITDA of the leading companies in the sector in 2024-2025 shows negative dynamics or stagnation due to export pressure, limited demand and rising domestic costs.
-Weakening of investment activity: Russian steel producers are reducing capital investments and new projects, focusing on the effectiveness of existing sites.
-Dynamics of ore and coal prices: According to the forecast, world prices for iron ore will remain in the range of 101-105 /t, and coke coal — 178-200 /t, which limits the potential of excess profits of the sector in the coming years.
-Export focus: The main players (MMK, NLMK, Severstal) maintain the export vector, but the share of exports is decreasing due to geopolitical restrictions, sanctions and the loss of European markets, some of the products are redistributed to Asia and the Middle East.
-Structural pressure on margins: An increase in the cost of logistics, raw materials and energy resources leads to a decrease in the marginality of metallurgical assets in Russia and the world.
-The recovery in demand is extremely limited: Domestic demand for steel (construction, mechanical engineering) is recovering moderately, but does not compensate for the decline in exports.
-Undervaluation of sector stocks: EV/EBITDA and P/E estimates of key companies indicate a low multiplier relative to global peers, which is perceived by the market as a risk factor, but also a potential entry point.
- Stabilization of stagnation: Steel output forecast for 2025-2027 — without significant growth: companies are balancing between the domestic market and a decrease in plant utilization.
-Withdrawal of "long-term" projects: The market reduces investments in long-term infrastructure projects. The trend is a quick return on investment, short—term strategies.