Global iron ore shipments increased 15% year-on-year this quarter, which is likely to exacerbate seasonal inventory growth at ports and contribute to inventory growth during 2026.
Analysts note in their note that in 2026 the average price for this base metal for the steel industry will be $ 93 per ton, which is $ 5 higher than the previous forecast. However, this is still significantly lower than the current iron ore futures price.
"In recent months, the iron ore market has remained more tense than we expected," analysts said in a note. Stable pig iron production in China, due to which port stocks have remained at the same level over the past two quarters, as well as the strengthening of the yuan, supported prices, they noted.
Prices for metallurgical materials have averaged about $101 per ton since the beginning of the year.
Iron ore futures are rising for the third day in a row, rising 0.7% to 106.45 per tonne in Singapore as of 10:41 a.m. local time. They have increased by about 15% since the low of mid-June, as China has taken measures to reduce excess industrial capacity.
China is struggling to overcome a multi-year downturn in the real estate market, which has negatively affected domestic demand, despite high steel exports. Goldman Sachs said the outlook remains negative and expects iron ore prices to fall to $88 per tonne by the last quarter of 2026, although this is higher than the previous forecast of $80.
"China's steel sector is already experiencing oversupply again," analysts say. "China's net steel exports have peaked, which, combined with the continued decline in domestic demand, is likely to have a negative impact on steel production next year."
Regarding shipments, Goldman Sachs said global iron ore shipments increased 15% year-on-year this quarter, which is likely to exacerbate seasonal inventory growth at ports and continue to grow throughout 2026.
