Prices seem stable, but there is not enough confidence. Factories are experiencing difficulties with profitability, while buyers remain cautious and refrain from replenishing stocks. The market continues to function, but its dynamics and liquidity are decreasing.
Uncertainty prevails in the outlook: 2026 is expected to be a difficult year for exporters. China's monthly exports of about 10 million tons, combined with lower import demand in the US and EU due to new tariffs and protective measures, are likely to further squeeze global trade.
In the EU, imports of rolled products have almost stopped due to uncertainty related to CBAM, lower quotas and higher duties. An increase in domestic prices is expected by the first quarter of 2026 against the background of limited imported alternatives, IREPAS notes.
In the US, demand remains stagnant, while new factory capacity puts downward pressure on prices. The ongoing government shutdown and the limited impact of recent interest rate cuts have further dampened sentiment, delaying infrastructure spending.
In general, the market enters the holiday period with a slight positive. Protectionism has become the new norm, providing some predictability but limiting trade opportunities. The lack of escalation of tensions between the US and China and the potential reduction of interest rates in the future are among the few encouraging signs. According to IREPAS, in the current conditions, the market remains unstable with a slow and unsatisfactory outlook.
