1.The growing importance of gold as a strategic asset:
Against the background of geopolitical conflicts, sanctions, deglobalization and the growing protective role of central banks, the demand for gold is increasing. Countries are stepping up purchases and increasing their gold and foreign exchange reserves — in 2024-2025, the pace of purchases by national banks is the highest in the last 40 years.
2. Gold market under pressure from new risks:
Trends in the Western and eastern gold markets (LBMA, COMEX, SGE) are intensifying, and alternative pricing schemes are emerging outside London and New York. The risks of losing the status of the "London Benchmark" cause increased volatility and spread.
3. Long—term forecast of gold price - growth:
The projected range of gold prices (according to leading analysts) for 2025-2030 is from 4,000 to 4,500 per troy ounce, and 5,000 by 2050 (taking into account inflationary and global macroeconomic factors).
4. The main drivers of demand are Asia, sovereign wealth funds, and technology markets:
The volume of purchases is shifting to East Asia (China, India), sovereign wealth funds (SOFAZ, etc.) are increasing investments, and the value of gold in fintech, IT, innovative technologies, and electronics is growing.
5. Commodity security is a new trend in global politics:
Gold is becoming not only a financial, but also an industrial raw material for strategic high-tech industries, which requires the formation of national protectionist programs and alternative supply channels.
6. Impact on Russia — Opportunities and threats: Positive: Russia remains one of the largest gold producers, the national industry benefits from high global demand and market diversification.
Restrictions: Gold exports are facing sanctions, the search for new buyers, and the growth of gray channels (in particular, the Russian Federation in Asia and the domestic market).
7. Gold is becoming an important tool for Russia to balance the ruble, reserve fund, and support the domestic financial sector in the face of sanctions pressure.
