International credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has announced updates to its near-term price assumptions for both iron ore and coking coal, reflecting stronger-than-expected market conditions and cost support into early 2026.
Iron ore outlook upgraded on cost support
Fitch upgrades iron ore price forecast for 2026 to $95/t, up from previous estimate of $90/t. The upward revision reflects higher production costs, which are expected to provide structural price support.
However, the agency noted that current price levels above $100/t are unlikely to be sustainable. Prices are expected to decline as supplies increase and inventories build in Chinese ports.
Fitch also revised its medium-term forecast upward, forecasting iron ore prices at $85/t in 2027, $80/t in 2028 and stabilizing at $75/t in 2029
Coking coal forecast rises following supply disruptions
For coking coal, Fitch raised its 2026 price assumption to $190/mt from the previous estimate of $180/mt. The increase was largely due to strong prices recorded in early 2026 following supply disruptions caused by a cyclone in Australia, a key exporting region.
Despite a strong start to the year, Fitch expects prices to gradually ease from the second quarter as supply conditions normalize.
The agency maintained its long-term outlook, projecting coking coal prices to level of $180/t for 2027-28. And
