S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on July 1, 2026. United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamison Greer and Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard announced the start of technical discussions ahead of the July review, with a preliminary virtual meeting on March 17 and the first formal round on March 18 with some personal elements in Washington.
The July 1, 2026 joint review is required under Article 34.7 of the USMCA, a termination clause that was intentionally added during the 2018-2020 negotiations that replaced NAFTA. At the insistence of the first Trump administration, negotiators replaced the permanent NAFTA structure for a period of 16 years and a mandatory review after six years so that future governments could force updates rather than allow the deal to become obsolete. The mechanism is being tested for the first time. Under consideration on July 1, the three parties must decide whether to extend the agreement for a new 16-year period, shifting the clock from 2036 to 2042 and moving on to annual reviews.
Judging by the trade data, it is unlikely that the agreement will expire. Exports of goods and services from the United States to Canada and Mexico have increased by 56 percent since 2020, when the USMCA went into effect. Canada and Mexico have become the two main trading partners of the United States.
Mexico's top priority in the negotiations is to eliminate tariffs, especially Section 232 on steel and aluminum, and return to pre-tariff terms. Although the Section 232 tariffs are a separate US national security measure that goes beyond the scope of the USMCA text, Mexican negotiators link their cancellation directly to the review process. In exchange, Mexico offers to work to reduce dependence on imports from outside the USMCA markets, strengthen rules of origin to prevent countries such as China from using back roads to supply resources, and improve supply chains in North America.
The US position is to tighten the rules regarding the country of origin and non-market resources. However, the United States refuses to directly extend the agreement in its current form. This opinion was embodied in a six-page public letter from the President and CEO of the American Institute of Iron and Steel (AISI) Kevin Dempsey to Ambassador Greer. Dempsey called for stricter standards on the origin of steel and an end to using Mexico as a bypass route. Dempsey argued on behalf of American manufacturers that these stricter regulations would encourage American
