According to the Short-Term Outlook (SRO) report published by the World Steel Association in April 2026, global steel demand is expected to grow by 0.3 percent in 2026 to reach 1.72 billion tons, indicating a moderate recovery, while growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.2 percent in 2027, bringing demand to 1.76 billion tons.
Signs of a bottom in global demand
UNESID Chief Economist and Chairman of the Worldsteel Economic Committee Alfonso Hidalgo Calcerrada said the latest forecasts are in line with forecasts published in October 2025, confirming that global steel demand bottomed out between 2025 and 2026 and will enter a gradual recovery phase from 2026.
By According to the report, the acceleration in growth in 2027 will be driven mainly by divergent regional dynamics. A slowdown in China and strong demand growth in emerging markets, especially India, are among the key factors supporting the global outlook.
Middle East risks are weighing on demand. Forecast
The report indicates that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to lead to a sharp decline in steel demand in the region in 2026, which will be a key factor negatively impacting the region, which was previously expected to show strength.
However, the base case scenario assumes that the conflict will be resolved by June, in which case demand in major economies is expected to remain broadly resilient. However, if hostilities continue beyond the second quarter, a downward revision may be necessary, especially for regions with high energy sensitivity.
China's slowdown slows, 2027 forecast unchanged
The contraction in Chinese steel demand is expected to slow to 1.5 percent in 2026 as the housing market correction nears its bottom. Increased infrastructure investment and export-supported manufacturing are expected to partially support demand.
China's demand is projected to remain relatively flat in 2027. As the long-term correction in the real estate sector comes to an end, demand is expected to shift to a more balanced structure.
Growth in emerging markets to slow in 2026
Steel demand growth in emerging markets, excluding China, is expected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2026. This slowdown will be driven by the sharp downturn in the Middle East and the normalization of stockpiling activity in ASEAN.
However
