The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global growth forecast for 2026 and 2027 in its World Economic Outlook report in April 2026, forecasting global growth of 3.1 percent in 2026 compared with previous expectations, followed by a modest recovery to 3.2 percent in 2027. The revision reflects the growing uncertainty caused by conflict in the Middle East, along with ongoing trade tensions and financial market volatility.
Global headline inflation is expected to rise slightly in 2026, mainly due to rising energy prices, before falling again in 2027. The combined effect of slower growth and higher inflation is expected to weigh more heavily on emerging market and developing economies, where external vulnerabilities remain elevated.
Risks tilt toward lower growth and higher inflation
The IMF noted that the balance of risks has shifted, with downside risks and higher inflation risks becoming stronger expressed. Downside scenarios of weaker growth and higher inflation are now more likely than earlier forecasts.
Global trade is expected to weaken in the near term due to geopolitical tensions, rising trade barriers and ongoing supply chain disruptions. Trade fragmentation and rising tariffs are identified as key risks that could further weaken economic activity and reduce output in the long term.
Advanced economies face uneven recovery
In the United States, growth is forecast at 2.3 percent
