BigMint forecasts India's iron ore production to rise to 340-345 million tonnes in FY27 from around 316 million tonnes in FY26, indicating 8 percent year-on-year growth, according to BigMint. However, supply expansion is expected to outpace rising demand from the steel sector, and additional volumes are unlikely to be fully absorbed domestically.
Output growth continues to be driven by mine and capacity expansions, while steel production growth remains moderate. As a result, additional supply is likely to shift into inventories or require redirection to export markets, indicating a shift from demand-led expansion to capacity-led growth and creating early pressure on the domestic balance sheet. FY26. This means that most of the additional volumes will continue to come from a single state, further increasing its contribution to India's overall iron ore production.
Chhattisgarh's production is likely to increase to around 56 million tonnes, while Karnataka's growth could be limited to around 50 million tonnes. Jharkhand's production is expected to remain largely unchanged at around 22 million tonnes. Maharashtra's share is expected to be around 26 million tonnes, while Goa remains marginal at around 2 million tonnes.
This concentration increases structural dependence on Odisha not only for production but also for evacuation and logistics. As supply increases in one region, any transportation disruptions or state-level policy changes could have a disproportionate impact on overall supply availability.
Supply expansion remains capacity-driven
Output growth is driven by higher utilization levels and ramping up at both commercial and captive mines, especially in Odisha. Private sector players are leading the increase in volumes, with Rungta expected to increase production at its Sanindpur mine and also start production at the Pureibahal and Chandiposhi blocks. JSPL is also likely to see production rise as it resumes operations at its Roida mine, while Lloyds is expected to move to full capacity utilization at 26 million tonnes per annum.
JSW is likely to increase production volumes at its Goa and Vyasanakere mines in Karnataka, further fueling growth
