The Independent Steel Alliance (ISA), headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, released its Q2 2026 Rebar Market Sentiment Report, confirming that the U.S. rebar market recovery identified in the first quarter of 2026 is real and accelerating, with independent manufacturers poised for growth once they emerge from the 2025 downturn.
Ratings of favorable market sentiment rose to 25 percent in the second quarter quarter. Forward-looking expectations also rose, with 51.4 percent of manufacturers expecting market conditions to improve over the next 90 days, the strongest confidence level since the fourth quarter of 2024. Operating performance also strengthened across the board. Range $46-48/cwt ($920-960/t or $1,014-1,058/t), FOB Midwest plant, with regional premiums of $2-4/cwt. ($40-80/ton or $44-48/ton) in the Gulf Coast and Southeast markets and $4-6/cwt ($80-88/ton or $88-132/ton) on the West Coast. Section 232 tariffs of 50 percent continue to act as an effective pricing umbrella, ISA said, eliminating much foreign competition. The EU's decision in mid-April 2026 to raise its own import tariffs on steel to 50 percent further altered global trade flows, shrinking export markets for Chinese steel.
Supply conditions improved marginally at the start of the second quarter, with lead times for domestic mills falling to 6-10 weeks from the 8-12 weeks seen in the first quarter. Heavy melt scrap prices fell to a range of $398 to $405 per metric ton, down about 3 percent from the first-quarter peak, according to ISA.
U.S. demand for rebar reached 1.69 million metric tons in the first quarter of 2026 and will reach 1.62 million metric tons in the second quarter of 2026 through April 25, according to market statistics from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). report.
For the third quarter 2026 outlook, ISA's base case assumes stable or moderately softer rebar prices of $45-47/cwt. ($900-$940/t or $992-$1,036/t), range, with upside potential of $50-$52/cwt. ($1,000-$1,140/t or $1,102-$1,146/t), and potential downside to $42-$45/cwt. ($840-926/ton or $900-992/ton). Iron ore prices are expected to decline to $95-$100 per metric ton, while scrap prices are expected to remain at $385-$400 per metric ton, ISA
said.
