Vale updates financial estimates of its iron ore mining business based on the conflict model in the Middle East

Brazilian mining company Vale has adjusted its financial outlook for 2026 to reflect prevailing market conditions resulting from the conflict in the Middle East, the company said in a statement today.

The company estimates an increase in free cash flow from its iron ore business of approximately $1.5 billion, taking into account the conditions observed before and after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East on February 28.

This increase includes US$1.2 billion in EBITDA from iron ore, US$425 million from foreign exchange, fuel hedging programs, and an increase of US$100 million in capital expenditures to maintain production.

This estimate assumes that the average prices of January and February 2026 before the conflict will be applied to the full year 2026, including iron ore at $112 per ton, Brent costs $104 per barrel, bunker fuel costs $675 per ton, and the BRL/USD exchange rate is 4.90.