The agency said commodity-specific factors, including logistical disruptions, higher production costs and sustained demand from steelmakers, continue to support prices for major steel raw materials.
Higher logistics costs are supporting iron ore prices
Fitch increased its short-term forecasts for iron ore prices to $100/t from the previous estimate of $95/t, citing rising costs shipping and transportation costs related to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
According to the agency, higher fuel prices as a result of the ongoing conflict involving Iran have led to increased transportation costs in all global supply chains of raw materials. These additional transportation costs have helped support iron ore prices despite broader concerns about global economic growth and steel demand.
The forecast of coking coal for 2026-2027 has improved
Fitch has also revised upward its assumptions on coking coal prices for 2026 and 2027 to $220/ton and $190/ton, respectively, according to compared to previous estimates of $190/ton and $180/ton. The agency attributed the adjustment to a combination of stronger prices since the beginning of the year, supply disruptions in key producing regions, and continued global demand.
