New EU restrictions on steel imports could affect Arab producers unevenly: more than 60% of Egypt’s previous shipments may fit within the proposed quotas, according to Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The corresponding share for Saudi Arabia, Algeria and the United Arab Emirates is below 30%.
Nicole Voigt, BCG managing director and partner, presented the assessment on November 4 at the 19th Arab Steel Summit and International Iron and Steel Exhibition in Cairo. The EU is cutting import quotas, raising tariffs and tightening origin requirements at the same time, she said. The combination could make access to the European market more difficult and weaken the competitiveness of Arab steelmakers.
Carbon emissions are also becoming more important. Voigt said the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) increases the importance of emissions in steel trade, but the current quota system does not give preference to lower-carbon products. Lower emissions alone therefore do not guarantee market access.
Verified emissions data can, however, significantly reduce CBAM costs. Using Egyptian DRI-EAF hot-rolled coil as an example, Voigt estimated a cost of about €24 per tonne when verified data are used, compared with around €228 per tonne under EU default values. The reference carbon cost for EU-produced hot-rolled coil is about €36 per tonne. The figures underline the importance of accurately measuring, verifying and reporting emissions.
The European Commission has also proposed extending CBAM to steel-intensive downstream goods from 2028. Its initial proposal covered about 180 additional product codes, while the European Parliament’s position, adopted in September 2026, expanded the proposed scope to 457. Negotiations are scheduled for November 30, and the final list has yet to be agreed.
Voigt said Europe’s growing focus on low-carbon steel and industrial decarbonisation could create opportunities for producers with lower emissions and access to competitively priced energy. Trade barriers and new requirements may make it harder to benefit, however. Exporters will need to address both the carbon intensity of their products and the rules governing access to the EU market.
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