The dollar at the end of 2013 will cost 9 hryvnias - S&P

According to the forecast of the international rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P), the Ukrainian hryvnia will depreciate 12 percent to 9 UAH per dollar by the end of 2013. The agency’s analysts talk about this in their new review of the economic situation in Ukraine.

"In 2013, the volume of international reserves of Ukraine will decrease to about $ 20 billion ... In our basic script, we allow the possibility of reducing the hryvnia to the dollar from 7.99 in 2012 to 9.0 in 2013," S&P.

Recently, the steps of the National Bank of Ukraine will be able to stop the fall in the hryvnia only for a while. At the same time, the persistence of the government in maintaining the current hryvnia course against the background of negative indicators of economic growth will result in the forced devaluation of the Ukrainian currency.

“Until this moment, the government used the advantages of a significant level of liquidity in world capital markets, covering its financing needs due to international borrowing. However, in our opinion, the favorable conjuncture of capital markets may be unstable, which will lead to further increased pressure on external funding indicators,” the analysts say.

In addition, S&P experts have worsened the forecast for the implementation of a budget painting for 2013. In their opinion, it is worth expecting an increase in the deficit of the state budget of Ukraine to 5 percent.

Also, the previously predicted level of GDP growth per capita is reduced: instead of 4.1 percent in 2013 - 2015, it will be no more than 2.5 percent. The income fall will arise due to a further decrease in demand for Ukrainian goods in foreign markets and a reduction in industrial production.

In general, S&P analysts give a negative forecast for the development of the Ukrainian economy. They allow the possibility of reducing the long -term credit ratings of Ukraine in the next 12 months with a probability of at least one to three, if the government strategy to attract financing in foreign currency will not meet Ukraine’s needs for external financing or if the level of pure international reserves of the country will fall faster than it is expected.

On the other hand, it is emphasized in the report, Ukraine can get a stable rating if it completely solves the problems of external financing and takes measures to stabilize the sovereign economy.