The rapid decrease in the currency reserves of Ukraine forced Fitch analysts to change the forecast to a negative

The Fitchratings International rating agency confirmed the sovereign ratings of Ukraine at the level of "B" and changed the vision of the future of the country to the negative. At the same time, the revision of the forecast from the stable to the negative is explained by the more vulnerable position of Ukraine in external financing, difficulties with the involvement of foreign capital and the likelihood of further reduction of foreign exchange reserves.

Fitch does not think that Ukraine will be able to agree on the new IMF tranches in 2013, since the authorities did not meet the requirements of this organization to reduce subsidizing gas prices for the population and the transition to more flexible currency regulation. Analysts do not know where Ukraine will take 6 billion 400 million dollars to pay off existing debts to the IMF.

The National Bank of Ukraine reduced its reserves by 18 percent - to 5 billion 300 million dollars and today the country's authorities have limited possibilities to confront pressure on the hryvnia, which can lead to a sharp decrease in the exchange rate.

In addition, sovereign indicators of the creditworthiness of Ukraine have worsened. The state budget deficit increased to 5.8 percent to 38 percent of GDP debts and obligations on issued guarantees. At the same time, in the case of a sharp decrease in the national currency, the situation will only worsen, they say in Fitch.

Analysts are based on their forecast on the fact that the growth of the Ukrainian economy will be within 0.5 - 1 percent in 2013 and 2 - 3 percent in 2014. At the same time, the dollar will cost at the end of this year 8.5 UAH, and at the end of 2014 - 9 UAH. If these figures turn out to be worse than forecasts, then the rating of Ukraine will be revised towards deterioration.