According to analysts at UBS, the largest financial conglomerate, after the copper price plunged to a 4-year low, it can finally find support.
Modern copper metallurgy depends on many factors, including market relations with China. The fall in prices, as you know, was caused by fears of a slowdown in economic growth in China. However, the bank's experts believe that in the longer term, presumably in 2 years, prices are likely to continue to decline, which should be taken into account by metallurgical enterprises.
At the moment, the price for copper has reached $ 6250-6500 per ton. The bank's specialists observe the support of the market by the buyers due to the seasonal factor. In March-April, interest in China always increases, which has a positive effect on both its internal and external economies, but after this period, market unrest usually returns it to its previous values. It was confirmed that China intends to achieve GDP growth, which should also positively affect the upward trend in copper prices.
UBS experts made a forecast that the price of the "red metal" will rise to $ 7000 per ton in the next 2 months, but then, after a longer period of time, the balance of supply and demand will bring down the price level to $ 6393 per ton of copper. Next year, the price will fall even lower than current values, and by 2016 it will reach $ 6283 per ton.
According to another source, James Luke, vice president of J.P. Morg noted that last year, global copper consumption grew by just over 5 percent, and this year it could increase by 3.3 percent, and by 2015 it could grow by 4.3 percent. Where there is demand, there is supply, and despite the fact that last year the volume of copper supplies increased by 3 percent, this year is expected to decline by 1 percent, and in 2015 - even more than 6 percent. The increase in market supply will also affect the fall in copper prices in the long term.
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