Prices for metal rubles will fall further

Analysts of the metal distribution market are unanimous in one - steel rental prices will decrease at least by autumn. And only during the period of the autumn seasonal revival of demand, some price restoration can begin.

“The main reduction in the factor is a decrease in business activity against the background of the weak market,” said Roman Topoluk, analyst IR Concorde Capital.

According to the forecast of the analysts of the Delphica project, after a moderate decrease in prices in May, in June on a long rental and in the first half of July on a flat rental, prices will reach a local bottom, after which, in anticipation of autumn revitalization, suppliers can count on moderate restoration of demand and prices.

As the analyst of the Dragon Capital IC predicts, Alexander Makarov, in June, the cost of Ukrainian metal production will decrease by $ 10-15/t (-2%) from the current level, the volume of sale will be reduced by 5-8%.

“I think that the situation will not stop at this level and we will come to the 3rd quarter with even lower prices,” says Dragon Capital analyst.

According to UPVE, in the 1st quarter of 2012, the export of flat rental from Ukraine decreased by 29.9% compared to January-March last year, to 2.224 million tons. For the export of flat rental from Ukraine, the predominance of semi-finished products was also characteristic: a slab, which accounted for 39.8% of all supplies.

- In July, after reducing prices in the previous months, the trading margin in the flat rental segment will decrease to a minimum. In turn, a decrease in warehouses and preparation for the autumn renewal of business activity will force traders to increase the volume of orders, which will lead to stabilization and the gradual formation of a growing price trend from the second half of July, ”the analyst of O. Gitytsky predicts.


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